COVID-19 is a contagious disease caused by the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) that attacks the respiratory tract. On August 14th, 2021, 653,741 persons had been proven positive for COVID-19. The number of patients tends to increase as the number of COVID-19 cases grows. The more infected people, the more cases of COVID-19 there will be. The Bed Occupancy Ratio (BOR) in West Java reached an all-time high of 91.6 percent in June 2021, far exceeding the WHO recommendation of 60 percent, before gradually declining to 30.69 percent in August. Because of the new cases mentioned, the rate of spread of COVID-19 in West Java, the forecast of new cases is very strategic. The number of new cases in this study was predicted using a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP). The data used in this study were sourced from the COVID-19 Task Force. The data is the number of positive and new cases from 34 provinces in Indonesia from March 2nd, 2020, to August 14th, 2021. The results of the evaluation using test data on the number of active cases in the last 19 weeks, namely April 10th - August 14th, 2021, The MLP is accurate in forecasting the number of new cases 18 times for both forecast periods with APE < 15%, with the value MAPE, RMSE and MAE obtained were 5.52%, 1157,61, and 706.811. The results of this study can be helpful for the government as a reference in conditioning hospital bed capacity to deal with active COVID-19 cases in West Java in the next two weeks so that the hospital rejects no COVID-19 patients because the hospital is full.

Demand elasticity is the sensitivity of changes in the number of goods demanded by consumers due to changes in the price of goods. This paper compares the price elasticity of demand with and without memory effect using fractional-order derivatives. This study is designed using the development theory of fractional derivatives for the economic field in determining the price elasticity of demand. The result of numerical simulation using the value of α and p indicated that the price elasticity of demand with memory effect is more accurate than without the memory effect. Furthermore, this study concluded that the price elasticity of demand does not only depend on the latest price (current price) but changes in all prices from a specific time interval. The findings of this study suggest future studies can examine the phenomenon of market equilibrium using fractional-order derivatives.

Forecasting is an integral approach due to its ability to make informed act decisions and develop data-driven strategies. It's also used to make decisions related to current circumstances and predictions on future conditions. An integral part has been developed using visibility analysis for COVID-19 Outbreak, a lesson from Indonesia. The author identified that its topic has limited attention, especially in assessing the forecasting models. The issue comes from predicted results that are questionable or cannot be trusted without applying the visibility analysis in the forecasting model. The visibility analysis is required to assess the model's ability to forecast future events. In conjunction with the issue, this paper introduces the analysis of visibility error with the different concepts during model development for the transmission prevention measures in making the decision. This study applied a statistical approach to assess the visibility error of forecasting performance in determining how long periods of forecasting and deciding for transmission prevention measures COVID-19 pandemics. Also, we developed the visibility error of time-variant using inductive logic. The result indicated that the number of data required to perform forecasting work on the basis of forecasting model specifications. In conclusion, this study has been completed to develop the statistical formula for identifying the largest time horizon in forecasting model N = V + 2. Also, this developed model can assist the stakeholder in forecasting the number of transmission prevention and making the decision in case of COVID-19 pandemic.

COVID-19 has spread to more than a hundred countries worldwide since the first case reported in late 2019 in Wuhan, China. As one of the countries affected by the spread of COVID-19 cases, the local government of Malaysia has issued several policies to reduce the spread of this outbreak. One of the measures taken by the Malaysian government, namely the Movement Control Order, has been carried out since March 18, 2020. In order to provide precise information to the government so that it can take the appropriate measures, many researchers have attempted to predict and create the model for these cases to identify the number of cases each day and the peak of this pandemic. Therefore, hospitals and health workers can anticipate a surge in COVID-19 patients. In this research, confirmed, recovered, and death cases prediction was performed using the neural network as one of the machine learning methods with high accuracy. The neural network model used is the Multi-Layer Perceptron, Neural Network Auto-Regressive, and Extreme Learning Machine. The three models calculated the average percentage error (APE) values for 7 days and obtained APE values for most cases less than 10%; only 1 case in the last day of one method had an APE value of approximately 11%. Furthermore, based on the best model, then the forecast is made for the next 7 days. In conclusion, this study identified that the MLP model is the best model for 7-step ahead forecasting for confirmed, recovered, and death cases in Malaysia. However, according to the result of testing data, the ELM performs better than the MLP model.

The power-law memory effect is taken into consideration in a generalisation of the economic model of natural growth. The memory effect refers to a process's reliance on its current state and its history of previous changes. However, the study that focuses on natural growth in economics considering the memory effect with fractional order-linear differential equation model is still limited. The current investigation seeks to solve the natural growth with memory effect in the economics model and decide the best model using fractional differential equation (FDE), namely Adomian Decomposition and Variational Iteration Methods. Also, this study assumes the level of consumer loss memory during a certain time interval denoted by a parameter (α). This study showed the model of loss memory effect with 0 < α ≤ 1 given a slowdown in output growth compared to a model without memory effect. Besides that, this study also found that output Y(t) is growing faster with the Variational Iteration method compared to the Adomian decomposition method. Also, using graphical simulation, this study found the output Y(t) is closer to the exact solution with α=0.4 and α=0.9. In conclusion, this study successfully solved natural growth with memory effect in economics and decided the best model between FDE, namely Adomian decomposition and Variational iterative methods using numerical analysis.

Job performance becomes one of crucial issues and challenges faced by the organizations and it is related to employees’ performance. In conjunction with the issue, this study investigates the determinants of job performance among female employees in Malaysia. Respondents involved in this study were composed of 320 female workers selected from manufacturing, education, health and hospitality sectors. The data was collected through self-administered questionnaires by using a five-point Likert scale. The study uses two common statistical analysis, including the descriptive and inferential statistics analyses by assisting statistical software, namely the Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS-20). The outcome shows that motivation, organizational climate, and time management significantly influenced female employees' job performance. Also, the organizational climate was a determinant factor affecting female job performance in Malaysia. Thus, the finding of this study will assist female employees and employers in understanding the factors that could affect their performance in the organization.

Cheating is not new in an academic line, but a continuous problem faced by educators. Many studies reported an increase trend of cheating among students from secondary or tertiary institutions from time to time. The primary purpose of this paper is to examine the connection between subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, attitude, and intention to cheat among undergraduate students. Also, the variable of justification to cheat is assigned as moderator variable in this relationship. The paper used a survey method for data collection, administered both in electronic and paper form. The Structural equation model with partial least square (PLS-SEM) was utilized to evaluate the data obtained from 917 undergraduate students in one of the public universities in Malaysia. The results provided support that justification, alongside subjective norms, perceived behavioral control were valid predictors of intention to cheat. However, Attitude was significant with the intention to cheat. Further, the findings showed that among the three constructs of the Theory of Planned Behavior, justification could only significantly moderate the perceived behavioral control-intention to cheat relationship. The study was only conducted at one public university in Malaysia. Researchers are recommended to further examine the model in other universities and other countries. Implications for implementing strict anti-academic dishonesty policy and research are discussed.

The premium is a deterministic function to compensate for losses due to random events and it is an essential part of an insurance company operation. Numerous issues are faced by the Takaful operator in the practice of insurance, one of them is “validity of life insurance” which is still under discussion among Islamic scholars. Their conversation leads to the issue of approach which are utilised by the Takaful operator to create a sales illustration product. Based on their current discussion, there are still some hidden elements and some missing points related to the concept of loss and surplus sharing utilised by Takaful operator. Therefore, this paper focuses on the practice of Family Takaful for producing the sale illustration product which Shariah compliant. The study develops a new model of the premium for an equity-linked policy (Unit-linked product) by considering the properties of Takaful contracts namely Tabarru and Mudarabah. It aims to ensure that a new model developed can comprehensively demonstrate Shariah compliance. The model adapted and derived from the current Takaful Business Model. We add several assumptions to implicate the approach in a real problem associated with the ratio of profit-sharing (Mudarabah) and loss-sharing (Tabarru). Secondary data are used to test and produce a sales illustration product by utilising a new integrated model of the premium developed. Based on the empirical results, a new model of premium is used to create a sales illustration product that comprehensively complies with Shariah and also more profitable and beneficial when compared with a standard approach used by Takaful operator.

A value chain plays a crucial role in increasing production efficiency due to business uncertainty and high competition between business entities. Of these, the business must carry out the activities effectively and efficiently to achieve maximum profit. However, the study that focuses on the moderating role of the value chain in its relationship to firm performance is still limited. Thus, the present study aims to examine the effect of intellectual capital and environmental uncertainty toward firm performance and the mediating role of the value chain in the relationship between intellectual capital and environmental uncertainty to firm performance. This study was designed using a quantitative approach through an online survey. A total of 207 staff from non-financial state-owned enterprises consists of 10 clusters and 76 companies. The data were analyzed using the Structural Equation Modeling with Partial Least Square method (SEM-PLS) and assisted by statistical software, namely SmartPLS 3.3.3. The result indicated that intellectual capital and environmental uncertainty have a significant effect on firm performance. Also, this study found that a value chain moderates the relationship of intellectual capital and environmental uncertainty toward firm performance. In conclusion, this study has successfully examined the effect of intellectual capital and environmental uncertainty on firm performance—also, the role of a value chain in the relationship of studied variables. In addition, the findings of this study showed that a value chain is an important tool for companies to improve their business performance.

As a country surrounded by the ocean, Indonesia is categorized as a country that has marine potential. The fishermen communities’ economy depends on ocean. However, the fishermen communities live below the poverty line and their average income is less than regional minimum wage. In conjunction with the issue, this study seeks to investigate the factors affecting the income of fishermen communities and right decision to fishermen in covering with welfare insurance in Cirebon, Indonesia. The quantitative study is designed using cross-sectional approach. The data collected by applying random sampling with open-ended questions and interview. A total of 100 fishermen’s have participated in this study. The study used some factors in measuring the fishermen community income, namely coastal environment condition, fish catching technology and location, operational capital, climate (season) condition, fishermen’s age, fishermen’s education, and fishing experience. The data are analyzed using the multinomial logistic regression model by assisting the statistical software, i.e., SPSS-23. The results show that coastal environment condition, fish catching technology and location, operational capital, climate (season) condition, fishermen’s age, fishermen’s education, and fishing experience have significant effects on fishermen income. Interestingly, the factor of coastal environment condition and climate (season) condition have significant negative effects on fishermen income. In conclusion, this study identified that two important factors reduced the welfare level of fishermen (via income). Also, in line with that things, the right decision which can provide to support and assist the fishermen community was by providing the welfare insurance. It is purposely to give them the protection from various risks faced by fishermen.